We Suck at Predicting

History’s Comically Bad Predictions

At the turn of the 20th century, cities around the world had a crappy problem that was getting worse by the day. Literally. Metropolises were rapidly growing in population, and thus so did the number of horse-drawn carriages to transport people from place to place. The problem? Horses generate a lot of waste. At this time, New York City had an estimated 130,000-200,000 horses transporting people and goods around Manhattan, which meant there was upwards of 5+ million pounds of manure being generated every day. Yeah, that’s a lot of poop.

In 1894, The Times of London allegedly predicted that in 50 years, the city would be literally buried in horse poop! And can you blame them? If one looks at the trajectory of people, and horses, and poop, it would be simple to just continue to draw all of those lines up and to the right.

Two years later, in 1896, a battery and internal combustion engine was attached to a horseless carriage, and within two decades the automobile had taken over, and the horse manure problem solved itself.

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Would Human Beings Ever Actually Fly?

By the late 1800s, after millions of wasted dollars, terrible mishaps, and fatal accidents, humanity’s attempt to fly had largely been abandoned. Despite widespread interest and plenty of experimental attempts, too many people had died and too much money had been set on fire. There just didn’t seem to be a safe path to success.

The Washington Post soundly declared, “It’s a fact that man can’t fly.” A particularly pessimistic gentleman predicted that “men would not fly for fifty years.” That prediction was made in 1901. We all know what happened next: Less than two years later, Willbur Wright took to the skies in his glider and became the first person in history to fly a manned aircraft. Who was the idiot that made the comically bad prediction about not flying for 50 years? Willbur Wright! Luckily, he took the fact that his prediction was off by 48 years in stride, and was glad to have proven himself wrong.

We Suck at Predicting!

Look back at any major development in history, good or bad, and you can find comically bad predictions from noted experts. 1968’s The Population Bomb predicted worldwide famines due to overpopulation within decades…which makes sense. One look at this chart would lead you to the same conclusion: [Chart]. Of course, this is no longer the problem we’re facing as a planet.

Most experts these days are still raising alarm bells…but they’re terrified about underpopulation, the exact opposite problem compared to a few decades prior. Predictions are fickle, and we humans are quite bad at them.

Hell, the reason I can send you this essay is due to the fact that one of the most famous predictions ended up being comically wrong. In 1998, Nobel-prize winning Economist Paul Krugman said: “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically…By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” Yikes.

So, if humans, even experts, have been comically misguided and made terrible predictions about some of the most transformative moments in human history, do we think it’s also possible that we are wrong all the time about the predictions we make about our own lives? It’s time we start holding our predictions a little less strongly.

A Strategy for Our Own Lives

We can start with acceptance: we’re never going to get better at predicting the future. We can also hold two conflicting ideas in our head at the same time. As President Dwight. D. Eisenhower once said, “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.”

I’ve simply accepted this is just how life works. I still make plans, and I still make predictions…but I hold those plans and predictions very loosely. Looking back five years, I never would have predicted how the world and my life would turn out. I certainly wouldn’t have predicted a worldwide pandemic and life-altering medications like GLP-1. Hell, if I look back at last week, I can point to a bunch of things that didn’t go according to plan. But, because I expect nothing to ever go according to plan, I’m rarely caught off guard when things turn out differently than expected.

Conclusion

If we want to become more resilient and make progress on our goals, we need to accept that our plans will rarely go according to plan! We need to start holding our predictions a little less strongly and be more open to the possibility that we’re going to be proven wrong.

So, what can you do about it?

FAQs

Q: What can I do about predicting the future?
A: Start holding your predictions a little less strongly and be more open to the possibility that you’re going to be proven wrong.

Q: What if my prediction is wrong?
A: It probably will be. Accept it, and have a backup plan.

Q: How do I avoid getting caught off guard when things turn out differently than expected?
A: Expect that everything will always take longer than expected, and make plans accordingly.

Q: What if I’ve been making wrong predictions about my life?
A: It’s time to start rethinking your predictions and being more flexible with your plans.

Q: How can I improve my predicting skills?
A: Accept that you’ll never get better at predicting the future, and focus on being more flexible and resilient in the face of uncertainty.